Elaborating on issues with Bayes factors

10 Jul, 2018·
Jorge N. Tendeiro
Jorge N. Tendeiro
,
Henk A. L. Kiers
Abstract
Problems with frequentist statistics in general and null hypothesis significance testing in particular are a central issue in Psychology. Recent results related to the lack of reproducibility of statistical findings have urged researchers to change their way of doing science. One proposal that has received considerable attention in the literature is that of replacing $p$‐values with Bayes factors. Bayes factors are often praised for offering a rational means of assessing evidence between two competing hypotheses or models. However, even though there are indeed reasons to prefer Bayes factors over $p$‐values, Bayes factors are affected by a set of issues of their own. In this talk, we will highlight several standing issues with Bayes factors, which include: Sensitivity to the choice of priors, lack of coherence with parameter estimation, lack of proper justification for the so‐called default priors, questionable support towards (point) null hypothesis, and theoretical limitations of marginal likelihoods (on which Bayes factors are based). Our goal is two‐fold: Further clarify what one can (and cannot) expect from Bayes factors and discuss alternative analytic approaches.
Location

Columbia University

New York

talks
Jorge N. Tendeiro
Authors
Full Professor
Jorge N. Tendeiro is a professor at the Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, School of Informatics and Data Science, Hiroshima University, Japan. His main research interest is in the Bayesian statistical framework. He is also interested in item response theory in general and person fit analysis in particular.